Oscar picks, the final guesses

Well, it's that time again. The Oscars are this Sunday, and all my protestations aside (buried in long-forgotten old posts) I still care. I've already spoken about the Best Supporting Actress race in particular (and it looks like the Vegas oddsmakers haven't read Nate Silver), but here are my official guesses at who will win:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. It's won everything else. And while I agree with others that it's a pretty weak field this year, and that the sublime WALL-E should have been nominated, in the field of nominees we have it's a lock.

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke. I haven't seen The Wrestler, since my taste of unremitting bleakness has been off lately. (The name of this blog notwithstanding.) He certainly brought the crazy to the BAFTAs, but his is the come-back of the year, and by all accounts his performance was phenomenal. Let's all take a moment of silence, however, as we all remember what his face used to look like.

Best Actress: Fine. She should have been nominated for Revolutionary Road. But please, can we give Kate Winslet her freaking Oscar already? Her performance in The Reader, as morally questionable as the film itself may be, was typically fantastic, even if it is more of a supporting role. Give it to her!

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger. Bet your house. I also missed The Dark Knight (see above re: bleakness), but he apparently pulled out all the stops for an amazing performance. And then, in the Greatest Tragedy Mankind Has Ever Witnessed, he died of a drug overdose. He's the lockiest lock that ever locked.

Best Supporting Actress: Again, I've already mentioned this. It's Penelope Cruz. She's the biggest star, she's been nominated before, and the Academy likes Spaniards.

Best Director: Danny Boyle. Easy.

In all other categories, bet on Slumdog Millionaire. If Slumdog isn't nominated, go with The Dark Knight for some minor consolation prizes.

Oh, and pray I have a light night of call this Sunday.