Dept. of Ever-So-Very-Cautious Optimism

Nate Silver does the numbers on where the marriage-equality money is coming from:

In a fundraising plea to his mailing list this past week, Marc Multy [ed: boo, hiss, *rattles gragger*], the President of the anti-gay marriage Group Stand for Marriage Maine, described his opponents as having "amassed a war chest from the homosexual political elite from nearly every corner of the country to impose their will on Mainers like us."

Indeed, the pro-gay marriage group No on 1 Protect Maine Equality has raised more than $2.30 million in itemized contributions from outside the state of Maine; this is more than the $1.82 million that Stand for Marriage Maine has raised from out-of-state.

However, most of No on 1's advantage is based on its substantial edge in fundraising from within the state of Maine. No on 1 has raised $1.89 million from 3,766 unique contributors within the state, whereas Stand for Marriage Maine has raised just $677,000 from 422 contributors, putting it at nearly a 3:1 disadvantage. All told, No on 1 has raised 43 percent of its funds from within Maine, as compared with 26 percent for the Yes on 1 campaign.

[snip]

[Protect Maine Equality's] top 10 donors represent just 36 percent of its total fundraising haul, as compared to 91 percent for Yes on 1. Most of its contributions, rather, come from small donors, who account for its 9-to-1 advantage in the number of unique, itemized contributors within Maine, and its 28-to-1 advantage in its number of unique donors from outside the state.

It would be beyond foolish to generalize too much from these numbers. (Pace frequent commenter Uncle Jim, realistic appraisal of our current prospects and a propensity to taking the long view do not a losing attitude make.) However, look at those lower numbers. A 9-to-1 advantage in the number of unique contributors within Maine. Now, it may be that the No on 1 side is more generally affluent than the Yes folks. (By the way, isn't now a great time to make a donation?) But it sure looks like a big, big enthusiasm gap.

Minor editorial note: I have commented rather frequently about my reluctance to let marriage equality just drown out everything else on the blog, and for Bleakonomy to be All Gay, All the Time. That desire remains. However, we are now little more than a week away from a major, possibly landmark vote on a huge civil rights issue that impacts me directly. Thus, I will probably fixate on it a great deal over the next week. If this bores you to tears, please accept my humble apologies. But, frankly, I think most of you will understand.