A surprise to absolutely nobody

From Public Policy Polling (indirectly via the Dish):

Public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it.

I haven't bothered to post about polls up until now, because I don't put a lot of stock in them. I expected a result very similar to the one above, because the result will be thisclose. (If you live in Maine, please vote No in two weeks. Better yet, why not vote now and get it over with?)

But an event the Better Half, the Critter and I attended this past weekend gave me every reason to believe that, win or lose in two weeks, our side has won the war. The event was a big, joyful rally for the Religious Coalition for the Freedom to Marry in Portland, which was totally open to the public. Contrast this to the closed-door, no-media-allowed anti-equality rally in Augusta a couple of months ago. A movement that must cloister itself will never win in the end.

I made a similar observation after we left Portland to drive to a family gathering about an hour away, which took us through a rural and conservative area. Though this is obviously an imperfect measure, I counted three "Yes on 1" signs (which are admittedly more clear and eye-catching than ours) in people's yards. I can walk out my front door and find five times that many in Hallowell alone. And I've seen exactly zero cars with "Yes" bumper stickers. Now, obviously this doesn't mean we'll win in two weeks. But it does mean that people are not enthusiastic about publicly opposing marriage equality. A movement that people are unwilling to embrace will fail when it is opposed by people who publicly and proudly fight against it.

I don't know if we'll win on November 3, but I know that we will win eventually.