A new survey of Maine from Public Policy Polling (D) has some dire news for Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), with the moderate Republican potentially losing her 2012 Republican primary against a generic conservative challenger -- and by a landslide, no less.First of all, I don't buy this for one second. By the time Sen. Snowe is up for re-election, it will have been another three years. In political terms, that's another ice age. She has plenty of time to endear herself to the frothing base.The numbers: Conservative challenger 59%, Snowe 31%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. It is of course a long way from the idea of a generic conservative challenger to having an actual candidate, but the potential for success by just such an insurgent is certainly there.
Second, good luck finding any true-blue conservative in Maine with sufficient stature to challenge her. Admittedly, I'm still relatively new to the state, but when I think of potential challengers, I draw a total blank. People are likely evincing support for a mystery candidate who doesn't exist.
Finally, and soul-crushing recent elections notwithstanding, Maine is simply not going to send a hard-right conservative to the Senate. The Democrats control the legislature and the governor's mansion, and both of the House seats are held by liberal Democrats. Admittedly, both of the Senators are Republicans, but they're famous for being moderates. If the GOP would like to hand the Democrats an easy pick-up in three years, they'll take Snowe down and watch as her replacement is slaughtered in the general election.
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If she's a DIABLO (Democrat In All But Label Only) who votes for squillion dollar Democrat Patron Bailouts and supports Nancy Pelosi choosing what healthcare you and I can receive, what difference does it make if she caucases with the Rs or the Ds?
ReplyDeleteOTOH, while I wouldn't expect or want a hard-righty from Maine, perhaps a fresh face with a little spine to stand up to Harry Reid's replacement and a bit of Northeastern frugality going to DC wouldn't be a bad thing, Democrat or Republican.
In any case, I'm glad the home folks are reminding their Reps that, contrary to DC beliefs, they work for the people, and not the other way round.
Yeah, I'm not particularly thrilled with the people of Maine right now, so having leaders in DC who sometimes exercise their prerogatives as leaders and balk the will of "the people" does not really bother me.
ReplyDeleteplease gj, keep calling moderate Republicans Diablos, drive them out of the party, the Democrats will take them. Pretend that a Bachmann type can win in Maine. Meanwhile, the Democrats are perfectly happy with our Testers, Webbs, Nelsons, etc.
ReplyDeletecharo