Let the prognostications begin!

I like the Oscars.

No, strike that. I love the Oscars. In all their tacky, self-congratulatory glory, I love them. They celebrate the mediocre and ignore the sublime. They are of questionable artistic validity. For some reason, Kim Basinger has one. But love them I do, no matter how much I may protest to the contrary.

Thus, it is with great relish that I greet the advent of Awards Season. Like low-flying swallows, one may divine the future from the portents in the earlier, lesser award nominations. And predicting who will be nominated (and win) is half the fun. (Well, maybe not if you're straight. Enjoy your fantasy football, I guess.)

Within the past few days, nominations for the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards were announced. As far as prognosticatory value goes, the Globes are sort of meh. (They function better as paperweights than signifiers of artistic merit. Madonna has one. For acting.) It gives one a decent sense of who's got buzz, but the show is mainly an excuse for a bunch of famous people to hang out together, drink too much, and make funny acceptance speeches.

The SAG awards, on the other hand, are the closest thing to a sure bet as one will find. Actors make up the biggest voting block in the Academy. I had a sense that the execrable "Crash" was going to win Best Picture when it took the "Outstanding Cast Performance" SAG award that year, which is as close to Best Picture as the SAG awards get.

So, on that note, it looks like "Up in the Air" and Clooney have a lock on nominations. I think it's safe to look for Gabourey Sidibe and Mo'nique to get nods for "Precious," though I think it's more of a long shot for Picture. And I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that this is Meryl Streep's year to finally get a richly-deserved middle-career Oscar for "Julie & Julia."

Anyone else wanna play? Guesses welcomed.