9.22.2009

Dept. of Can Kickery

It seems the Veep has a bad feeling about 2010. From TPM (among other sources):
"It's not that Republicans are bad guys. This is just the bet they've made. They're going to put their chips on movement in the 35 seats in the House that have been traditionally Republican districts and trying to take them back," Biden said, according to the White House pool report.

"If they take them back, this the end of the road for what Barack and I are trying to do. This is their one shot," he went on. "If they don't break the back of our effort in this upcoming election, you're going to see the things we said we're for happen."

If Democrats can keep those seats, he said, Congress will finally see bipartisanship.

"All the hidden Republicans that don't have the courage to vote the way they want to vote because of pressure from the party," Biden said, "it will break the dam and you will see bipartisanship."

Well, color me skeptical. I have two qualms with what Biden had to say.

Gripe the first -- so, per Biden's calculation, the GOP has its chips on swaying about 35 seats back to their side. Somehow, if they lose, he posits that they will realize the error of their ways, and will finally start playing ball. But I don't buy that. Following 2010, the GOP will then have its chips on getting their man (or *shudder* woman) into the White House, and will have no motivation to suddenly work with the man they are hoping to oust. Obstructionism will continue to be the one and only thing in their playbook.

Gripe the second -- the prevailing opinion is that 2010 is going to hold losses of some kind for the Democrats. At least, it's certainly looking that way now. And Biden is saying that we'll only see the agenda we support passed if losses are minimal, and we can move forward after that? What about NOW, what with the sizable majorities in both houses of Congress?

Talk about your diminished expectations. I would politely request that the Democrats keep trying to get their work done right now, while they can, in the hopes that they will improve their popularity in advance of the next election. If the GOP wants to obstruct, let them. But get a move on, because 2010 probably won't be a good year, and punting until then is a losing strategy.

8 comments:

  1. When the Dead Kennedy is replaced, the Ds will control 60 Senate seats (counting the two I members), enough to end any filibuster. The House has a 79 seat D majority (AIUI, two R seats are vacant). I 35 seat swing doesn't give the Rs a majority.

    Sooo, I don't get it, unless he is trial ballooning excuses for the fecklessness of the current Administration.

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  2. JG, The, "Dead Kennedy." You really are an asshole. (Please note you do not even deserve the A to be capitalized.

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  3. Wha? No sense of humor, I see. I'll bet you really hated Jello Biafra.

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  4. They won't get control of either the House or Senate in 2010, they might pick up a lot of seats in the house, but most will be from Conservative Democrats so in actuality it will only push the house more leftward in practice since Pelosi won't have to worry about accommodating the Conservative wing. And this is the signature legislation of the Obama White House, Obama will get as much as he can now and use Democratic control to get incremental reforms after the elections, the Republicans can not filibuster everything. Basically, there are only 3 big items left on his agenda, one is health care (which will pass, albeit watered down), two is financial reform, which will also pass, and last is climate change (which never really had a chance to pass) so far every other item on Obama's agenda has been passed, and he is 13 for 13 on the major items so far.

    I also can't imagine that insurance companies are going to be all that happy with Republican Senators if Obama does get the Public option through (or even a trigger for it), what good is an obstructionist policy if you can't truly obstruct, just delay. If they did play ball behind closed doors, make a ton of amendments pushing the bill rightward by promising not to filibuster, then they can vote against the bill as loudly as they want and also claim that the bill would have been far worse without them.

    If Republicans had the sense to play it right by offering constructive opposition like you suggest, they could set themselves up for getting back Congress in 2014 and the White House in 2016, but it seems they actually believe the crap they hear on Fox, that Obama won because Bush wasn't Conservative enough, and that America is a center-right nation, and they only need to wait it out.

    charo

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  5. Whistling past the graveyard, eh? If Pelosi doesn't have to worry about the vulnerable Dems in conservative districts in December 2010, she doesn't have to worry about them today. I mean, if she must *lose* seats before she can unleash her mad progressive skillz, then something is seriously amiss in your analysis or Speaker Pelosi's political calculus. Maybe both.

    And obstruction is useful if it gets one to elections, giving the people a chance to make up for the bait-and-switch of the Obama administration (promising practical solutions and transparent, ethical behavior. Really, is anything less associated with the WH today than transparency and ethics? Or practicality, for that matter?) And guess what? Elections are on the menu for this November. We'll see if the results might enbolden or encaution the Blue Dogs in Red Districts.

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  6. good lord, did you even read what I wrote? I said after 2010 Dems can only get incremental change, where the hell do you get the mad progressive line from? Of course the Democrats want to have as large a margin as possible, but my point was some Conservative Dems being replaced by whack job Republicans won't hurt the Dem. party in the house in reality, there isn't any filibuster in the House.

    You really have to read your history, Harry Truman ran against Republican obstructionism and won. The Democrats were not obstructionistic to Bush (outside of his disastrous Soc. Security plan) and were then able to kick the living shit out of the Republicans for 2 election cycles. Republicans are too damned stupid to learn how the Democrats did it.

    By the way time gets us to elections, not obstruction so I have no idea what you are trying to say there. And enbolden and encaution are not words in any language in existence. Please use English words and don't make up any of your own.

    As to the elections in Nov. I live in Jersey and am tempted to vote against Corzine (I have voted for Kean and Whitman previously) I have to be honest and say I agree with Christie on a lot of issues, he is pretty moderate for a Republican and Corzine has been a horses ass. Christies opponent in the primaries was a knuckledragging idiot who would have gotten destroyed in Nov. I wouldn't take a Republican win there as being very meaningful. In Va. (which is Conservative) Deeds has pulled within 4, and it is safe to say if Kaine could run for re-election he would win.

    I know I really should not respond to a troll like you, and I ignored your sick nonsense above because I know you are an asshole who can't help it, but I have some free time this morning so might as well beat up on you. You are and remain my little bitch

    charo

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  7. At least you kept a reasonably clean mouth. You wrote that Ms. Pelosi "won't have to worry about accommodating the Conservative wing." To which I observed that if she doesn't need those conservative Dem seats to maintain control of the House, why not just pass the healthcare legislation today? Isn't Healthcare NOW!!!!! more important than a small group of conservative Dems? Pass the bills, you have the votes, Madam Speaker.

    Verbing weirds language -- Hobbs

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  8. gj. I suggest you go and learn about how they make bills in Congress. This is the greatest health care reform in American history, even outstripping Medicare, of course it is going to take a long time, and what the hell is YOUR hurry? Aren't Republicans always babbling that we shouldn't rush it? In actuality, Obama is far further along in the process than I even imagined he would be, and now the Dems have 60 in the Senate (or soon will) Republicans will get really desperate. My only fear is Lieberman but I doubt he has the balls to go against the Democrats so I can pretty much guarantee you that a bill will be passed and when that happens Republicans are pretty much screwed forever because you and I know that once a major program is passed it never goes away, Republicans can get back in power again, but they will just be tax collectors for the Welfare state. You are on the wrong side of history and it frightens you to death.

    By the way, the reason it hasn't passed in the bill is over the debate about the Public option, the left wing is pushing for it and the right wing wants it excluded. I would rather the Public option not pass personally, but soon enough a bill will pass. Have some patience.

    charo

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