7.17.2009

Ahem...might it possibly be a correlation, and not a cause?

So apparently, grant money was spent to find the most frequent first names of criminals. Far be it from me to criticize anyone for studying a question of no discernible practical importance. But the article suggests that, since the most common criminal first names (among them Luke, Alec, Malcolm, Preston) are not all that common among babies generally, we are to conclude that having an unusual first name helped condemn them to a life of crime. The article warns:

New parents may balk at naming their newborn boys such tried-and-true but yawn-inducing names as Michael or David — but a new study shows that if they play it safe, they may be doing their babies a favor. Writing in Social Science Quarterly, Shippensburg University professor David Kalist says giving newborn males oddball, girly or strange first names may just help land them in jail.

The article speculates that having an unusual first name might subject a boy to teasing. The teased boys are then propelled into a life of crime to compensate for having an unusual name.

First of all, are these names all that uncommon? Luke, for example, is ranked #46 in the U.S. Second, and more important, it does not seem to have occurred to the author of the article or anyone quoted in it that either a) parents who give their kids unusual names might have a different parenting style than those who do not, and that that parenting style -- and not the name -- might be responsible for the criminal behavior, or b) certain names and naming habits are associated with different socioeconomic groups, and that socioeconomic groups in which these names are more popular might be those in which members are more prone to criminal behavior.

Hmmm. If all goes well in the next month and a half, I'm about to name my new baby a name that was once reasonably popular in England, and now is not even ranked in the top 1000 names. Am I condemning him to commit trespasses? The Today Show would like to reassure me that I am not. Sometimes, however, the refutation of ill-drawn conclusions is an even more ill-drawn conclusion:
TODAY looked at the list of 10 heading-for-trouble names and found an example of each that could refute the findings. Along with Baldwin and Hemingway, there’s pop singer-songwriter Garland Jeffries, film director Ivan Reitman, basketball Hall of Famer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, actors Luke Wilson and Luke Perry, black leader Malcolm X, legendary filmmaker Preston Sturges, Olympic gold medal boxer Tyrell Biggs, and a host of Walters — from Walter Cronkite to Walt Disney to Sir Walter Scott.

Well, then. Bless Today's crack reporting. Of course, if you find one exception to a scientific finding, the finding itself is BS. My grandmother smoked and never got lung cancer. Color me relieved, and bring on the cigs!

27 comments:

  1. If having an oddball, girly or strange first name (and what's the difference between "oddball" and "strange," anyhow?) may land boys in jail, then a significant number of my patients are doomed.

    ReplyDelete
  2. My sons have two names, an American one and a Chinese one (their mother is from China), An, Kai, and Xiang. An is the An of Tiananmen (An means peace), now it might be strange to Americans but these names are pretty common in China. Who are these people to say what is common or correct? How much do you want to bet these researchers are white and anglo saxon(ish)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi, Enjoy the article, I'm Manisha, I really want to say sincerely that this is amazing content that you have shared. thanks for this. it's really very helpful for me.

    Live Current Affairs
    Live Sarkari Naukri
    How to get a Government Job easily
    Facebook Video Download Online
    Sarkari Yojana - PM Modi Yojana

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for sharing excellent informations. Your web site is very cool.Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs every day.
    HTML to Wordpress Conversion
    PSD to WordPress conversion service
    WordPress Blog Customization
    WordPress consultant services in India

    ReplyDelete
  5. bleakonomy.blogspot.com/2009/07/ahemmight-it-possibly-be-correlation.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Excellent goods from you, man. I have understand your stuff previous to and you’re just extremely great. I really like what you’ve acquired here, really like what you’re stating and the way in which you say it. You make it entertaining and you still care for to keep it smart. I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is really a terrific website.


    uwatch,
    desiremovie com,
    13377x proxy,
    रोमांटिक शायरी हिंदी में लिखी हुई

    ReplyDelete
  7. I recently discovered your blog and have found every piece I've read to be quite beneficial. My issue is that I receive a lot of traffic but very few comments!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Experience the internet at full and fastest speed! Download whatever you want in record time in Montreal.internet montreal

    ReplyDelete
  9. vitesse internet Gemstelecom high speed internet provider offers. Let's help you choose the best high speed internet

    ReplyDelete
  10. internet trois-rivieresOur fastest speed for split second streaming and downloading. Many users can browse at lightning speed on many devices.

    ReplyDelete
  11. cable sainte catherine Do everything all at once – download multiple HD movies, stream shows or music, browse and play online. Never get slowed down again.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anytime I have a question, a thought or just want to revisit a topic, I can always find new and useful information. I love how you cover so many different topics on your site. You do an amazing job of keeping me informed because there are lots of things I need to remember... bus rental Dubai Bus rental Bus rental in dubai Dubai Sightseeing bus rental with Driver staff transportation bus rental abu dhabi airport transfer bus rental sharjah

    I love this site – the posts are top notch, always interesting, useful and easy to read. I haven't seen pages jump like this in a long time. Really great work.!. bus rental Dubai bus rental Abu Dhabi bus rental Sharjah van rental Dubai Party bus rental mini bus rental Dubai Rent a bus Dubai Van rental dubai with driver

    ReplyDelete
  13. Thank you for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do a little research about this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I am very glad to see such magnificent info being shared freely out there.


    malayalam quotes
    love quotes malayalam
    sad quotes malayalam
    motivational quotes in malayalam
    friendship quotes malayalam

    ReplyDelete
  14. cable internet providers toronto Choosing the right internet service provider can be a daunting task. But by considering your needs and doing some research, you can find the perfect provider for your home or business. We hope our list of the best cable providers in Toronto has helped make your decision a little easier.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hey, I really liked your blog post about your sons' names! I'm so happy you found a way to make them both work for your family. I also liked that you included a picture of them. Digital Marketing Agency in USA

    ReplyDelete
  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Well recruiment is also a daunting process, you might wanna contact with some reputable recruitment agencies for Saudi Arabia for getting a job.

    ReplyDelete

  18. Correlation does not imply causation, and it is vital to acknowledge this fact when assessing relationships between variables. In other words, just because two things are correlated does not mean that one causes the other.

    Therefore, it is essential first to conduct thorough research to determine whether the correlation between the two variables is significant enough to argue causality. Sometimes, there might be other variables that influence the relationship, resulting in spurious correlations.

    ReplyDelete